Here is the blog where I try and act like I am Vegas, sounds pretty damn stupid when you say it out loud. Growing up I was taught one thing by my stepdad, “Vegas wasn’t built off winners”, but yet I find my degenerate ass trying to be the man who wins on parlays and beat the spread. In my mind, everything is a lock. If I pick it, it’s winning, I am right your wrong. Don’t @ me. During this wonderful season of lopsided non-conference games, the favorites have covered 46.3% of the time. For those of you that don’t like percentages and rather have records that’s 107-119-5, if you’re too simple-minded to understand that, the favorites have won 107 of 231 games against the spread. Math is one hell of a drug. This week I am going to give you a breakdown of my “Dear God I hope I am right picks” for the top ten College Football games and if I feel spontaneous enough I might even drop one or two games outside of the top ten (that’s called foreshadowing).
Penn State vs. Illinois- 9:00 PM- Friday- 9/21
We have a classic powerhouse BIG Ten school versus a prominent high school football team. The (cat)Fighting Illini have made a living off beating the dominant MAC school, Kent State and the polarizing Missouri Valley Conference team, Western Illinois (shout out to Youngstown State beat that ass this weekend). They lost to USF at home 25 to 19. I don’t even know why I am giving this attention right now. I’ll just get to the pick Penn State is 2-1 as a favorite this year and since 2010 is 33-31-3 in conference play ATS compared to Illinois who is 28-38 ATS. I’m going to ride with Penn State to cover the 28 points. Even though the Lions haven’t impressed me much and can easily overlook this game with the Buckeyes coming to town next week.
Georgia vs. Missouri- 12:00 PM- Saturday-9/22
Watch out now the SEC is getting into conference play, so we finally get to watch great SEC teams’ body lesser SEC teams. Since Barry Odom took over at Missouri in 2015 the Tigers are 10-14 ATS in conference games compared to Kirby Smart who took over the Bulldogs in 2016 who is 12-7 ATS in conference games. The Bulldogs are also 14-10 (2-1 this year) ATS as favorites and 6-2 as away favorites. Needless to say, I am laying down the 14 point spread and taking the Bulldogs.
Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest- 12:00 PM- Saturday-9/22
Well, guys here it is, if you’ve read this and said he’s taken all of the favorites this is where I throw the curveball. Notre Dame has done absolutely nothing for me to say, “Hey ND is going to cover and molly wop the shit out of Wake Forest”. Even with the downside of the ACC, I am not sold on the Irish who have had three straight home games and only covered the spread once. I am willing to take the 7.5 points I am getting against the Irish and take a Demon Deacon team who is 0-3 ATS this year.
Ohio State vs. Tulane- 3:30 PM- Saturday- 9/22
It seems as if the Buckeyes have taken a page out of Nick Saban’s book and put a girl scout team before a big conference game. I am not even going to acknowledge this or go into statistics. Ohio State covers the 37 points.
Alabama vs. Texas A&M- 3:30 PM-Saturday- 9/22
I had to double take and make sure I read this right. Holy shit! Alabama is actually playing a ranked opponent. Oh wait, the Aggies are now a part of the SEC, go figure. The Tide are 54-42-1 ATS in conference play under Saban compared to the Aggies who are 37-51-1 ATS. Unless Johnny Manziel comes out and plays QB after a night of rolling up fresh 100-dollar bills in the bathroom I see no hope the Aggies cover the 27-point spread against Tua and the Tide. In case you missed it, last week Bama won 62-7 on the road and haven’t scored less than 50 points so far this year.
Clemson vs. Georgia Tech- 3:30 PM- Saturday-9/22
I am not sold on Clemson this year, but I am also not a heavy fan of Georgia Tech being the team to knock them off. Here’s my shocker though I am going to take the 16.5 points BetCity777 is giving me and take Georgia Tech. The Tigers are 46-38-1 since Dabo took over in 2008, but right behind them at 42-37-5 since Paul Johnson took over in 2008 is Georgia Tech. The reason I am not sold on Clemson is the slow starts and most of all quarterback play by the Tigers. They also have a record 17-19 ATS as away favorites since 2008.
Oklahoma vs. Army- 7:00 PM- Saturday-9/22
Do I really have to give you statistical data of why I think Oklahoma is going to cover 31.5 points at home after a mediocre performance against Iowa State? God Bless our military but come on now.
LSU vs. Louisiana Tech- 7:00 PM-Saturday-9/22
You guys are going to start to think I am getting lazy with my explanation, but LSU at home in a “juggernaut” non-conference game. I’ll lay down the 21 points, I am all in on Joey Burrows.
Auburn vs. Arkansas-7:30 PM-Saturday-9/22
I guess I’ll have some fun with this. Auburn is absolutely terrible ATS, even after they lose which they’re 8-10. Arkansas is 10-6 ATS as the away underdog. Give me those 30 points baby! I am rolling with the Razorbacks to cover. NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND, Auburn is 25-17 since 2013 in conference play when Gus Malzahn took over the Tigers. I see them pummeling the Razorbacks after a loss last week to LSU and trying to bounce back in a heavy way. You guys see how I did that there? That’s called creativity and originality.
Stanford vs. Oregon- 8:00 PM- Saturday- 9/22
Finally, a game where the spread is manageable. Stanford is 42-25-1 since 2011when David Shaw took over compared to the Ducks who are 4-5 ATS in conference games. Why is this game so interesting? Stanford blew out the Ducks last year 49-7 at home. Now they have to travel to Oregon who is starting to show signs of the old Ducks that we know and love. I look at this as a game to showcase their abilities. I am going to take Stanford and lay down the two points, but I’ve never been iffier on a game. I really think the Ducks can shock them, any more than three points and I would take Oregon.
Washington vs. Arizona State- 10:30 PM- Saturday- 9/22
No one is going to be awake for this game anyways, but I am taking Washington who is somehow still in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth. The spread on this game is 17.5 and I feel like that’s a fair margin due to the fact that Washington really isn’t a bad team. If the game against Auburn was a true non-conference road game instead of in Atlanta, that game could’ve been extremely different.
Outside of Top Ten games to watch:
TCU -3.5 vs. Texas- 4:30 PM- Saturday- 9/22
Boston College vs. Purdue +6.5- 12:00 PM- Saturday- 9/22
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State -13- 7:00 PM-Saturday-9/22
Wisconsin vs. Iowa +3- 8:30 PM- Saturday- 9/22